Poisson-baseline scoring probability · rushing + receiving components · verified-feature traceable · live book comparison
DJ Herman
MIA vs CIN
+10.8pp
16.7% vs 5.9%
EV/u
+184%
Devin Singletary
NYG vs WAS
+8.3pp
18.8% vs 10.5%
+79%
Cam Ward
TEN vs HOU
+6.7pp
21.6% vs 14.8%
+45%
Isaiah Likely
33.3% vs 26.7%
+25%
Jared Wayne
HOU vs TEN
+2.3pp
14.1% vs 11.8%
+20%
Christian Watson
GB vs CHI
+2.2pp
39.2% vs 37%
+6%
Nicholas Singleton
+1.2pp
7.1% vs 5.9%
Nate Adkins
DEN vs LAC
9.5% vs 8.3%
+14%
Brock Purdy
SF vs SEA
+1.1pp
16.5% vs 15.4%
+7%
Emeka Egbuka
TB vs DAL
-0.6pp
25% vs 25.6%
-2%
Projected TDs distributed across each team's players — spot who gets the bulk of the scoring
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET · WR vs ARI
Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET
Book / Odds
DraftKings -140
Mkt Implied
58.3%
Edge
-13.4%
EV / unit
-23.0%
13.5 targets/g (L8) · 35% target share
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA · WR vs SF
FanDuel -120
54.6%
-14.9%
-27.3%
11 targets/g (L8) · 44% target share
GB · WR vs CHI
Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET
Fanatics +170
37%
+2.2%
+5.9%
9.5 targets/g (L8) · 28% target share
Jonathan Taylor
IND · RB vs PIT
Fanatics -200
66.7%
-28.3%
-42.5%
21.5 carries/g (L8) · 83% carry share
Josh Allen
BUF · QB vs LAR
Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET
FanDuel -125
55.6%
-19.6%
-35.3%
10 carries/g (L8) · 35% carry share
Jahmyr Gibbs
DET · RB vs ARI
DraftKings -340
77.3%
-42.2%
-54.7%
22.5 carries/g (L8) · 85% carry share
D'Andre Swift
CHI · RB vs GB
-31.9%
-47.9%
17 carries/g (L8) · 49% carry share
David Montgomery
HOU · RB vs TEN
DraftKings -115
53.5%
-20.0%
-37.4%
13 carries/g (L8) · 52% carry share
NYG · TE vs WAS
DraftKings +275
26.7%
+6.7%
+25.0%
8 targets/g (L8) · 28% target share
CeeDee Lamb
DAL · WR vs TB
Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 PM ET
Fanatics +105
48.8%
-15.8%
-32.4%
8.5 targets/g (L8) · 28% target share
Omarion Hampton
LAC · RB vs DEN
Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET
Fanatics +165
37.7%
-5.0%
-13.2%
17.5 carries/g (L8) · 66% carry share
Christian McCaffrey
SF · RB vs SEA
FanDuel -155
60.8%
-29.6%
-48.8%
Ashton Jeanty
LV · RB vs NE
DraftKings -120
-23.4%
-42.9%
22 carries/g (L8) · 67% carry share
Javonte Williams
DAL · RB vs TB
Fanatics -210
67.7%
-38.8%
-57.3%
12 carries/g (L8) · 62% carry share
Kyren Williams
LAR · RB vs BUF
FanDuel -180
64.3%
-35.5%
-55.2%
11 carries/g (L8) · 38% carry share
Jake Ferguson
DAL · TE vs TB
Fanatics +250
28.6%
-0.9%
-3.0%
3 targets/g (L8) · 10% target share
Garrett Wilson
NYJ · WR vs CLE
DraftKings +135
42.6%
-15.0%
7 targets/g (L8) · 24% target share
Cam Skattebo
NYG · RB vs WAS
Fanatics +110
47.6%
-20.2%
-42.3%
18 carries/g (L8) · 49% carry share
Trey McBride
ARI · TE vs DET
-10.7%
-28.2%
11.5 targets/g (L8) · 37% target share
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN · WR vs MIA
Fanatics -105
51.2%
-24.8%
-48.4%
6.5 targets/g (L8) · 20% target share
Tyler Warren
IND · TE vs PIT
DraftKings +155
39.2%
-13.0%
-33.1%
6 targets/g (L8) · 20% target share
Chase Brown
CIN · RB vs MIA
DraftKings -155
-35.0%
-57.6%
18 carries/g (L8) · 72% carry share
Tre Tucker
LV · WR vs NE
Fanatics +210
32.3%
-7.3%
-22.5%
5.5 targets/g (L8) · 19% target share
TB · WR vs DAL
Fanatics +290
25.6%
-0.6%
-2.5%
5.5 targets/g (L8) · 18% target share
Ladd McConkey
LAC · WR vs DEN
Fanatics +220
31.3%
-6.3%
5 targets/g (L8) · 19% target share
TreVeyon Henderson
NE · RB vs LV
BetOnline.ag +190
34.5%
-9.8%
16 carries/g (L8) · 57% carry share
Bhayshul Tuten
JAX · RB vs PHI
Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 AM ET
Fanatics +115
46.5%
-22.0%
-47.3%
14 carries/g (L8) · 51% carry share
Bucky Irving
TB · RB vs DAL
FanDuel +200
33.3%
-8.8%
-26.5%
12.5 carries/g (L8) · 56% carry share
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
WAS · RB vs NYG
-27.0%
-52.7%
14 carries/g (L8) · 44% carry share
Mike Gesicki
CIN · TE vs MIA
Fanatics +200
-10.9%
-32.8%
7 targets/g (L8) · 21% target share
James Cook
BUF · RB vs LAR
-32.3%
-59.1%
17 carries/g (L8) · 60% carry share
Jeremiyah Love
ARI · RB vs DET
DraftKings -130
56.5%
-34.4%
-60.9%
10 carries/g (L8) · 39% carry share
George Kittle
SF · TE vs SEA
Fanatics +190
-12.4%
-35.9%
4.5 targets/g (L8) · 17% target share
Stefon Diggs
WAS · WR vs NYG
Fanatics +130
43.5%
-21.4%
-49.2%
7.5 targets/g (L8) · 24% target share
Mike Evans
SF · WR vs SEA
-9.6%
-30.6%
TEN · QB vs HOU
Fanatics +575
14.8%
+45.5%
4 carries/g (L8) · 19% carry share
MarShawn Lloyd
GB · RB vs CHI
Fanatics +120
45.5%
-24.7%
-54.4%
9.5 carries/g (L8) · 49% carry share
Dalton Kincaid
BUF · TE vs LAR
-39.7%
7 targets/g (L8) · 25% target share
Pat Freiermuth
PIT · TE vs IND
Fanatics +370
21.3%
-1.6%
-7.4%
5 targets/g (L8) · 14% target share
Evan Engram
DEN · TE vs LAC
Fanatics +340
22.7%
-3.1%
-13.7%
3 targets/g (L8) · 11% target share
Sam LaPorta
DET · TE vs ARI
-43.1%
7.5 targets/g (L8) · 19% target share
Fanatics +850
10.5%
+8.3%
+78.9%
6 carries/g (L8) · 16% carry share
Puka Nacua
LAR · WR vs BUF
FanDuel -130
-38.5%
-68.1%
9 targets/g (L8) · 33% target share
Parker Washington
JAX · WR vs PHI
FanDuel +160
38.5%
-55.6%
9 targets/g (L8) · 38% target share
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Fanatics +225
30.8%
-44.6%
5.5 targets/g (L8) · 20% target share
Jaylen Warren
PIT · RB vs IND
DraftKings -110
52.4%
-35.4%
-67.5%
10.5 carries/g (L8) · 48% carry share
Malik Nabers
NYG · WR vs WAS
-14.0%
-45.5%
9 targets/g (L8) · 31% target share
MIA · RB vs CIN
Fanatics +1600
5.9%
+10.8%
+184.4%
3 targets/g (L8) · 13% target share
Brian Thomas Jr.
DraftKings +350
22.2%
-5.5%
-24.9%
5.5 targets/g (L8) · 23% target share
Braelon Allen
NYJ · RB vs CLE
BetOnline.ag -125
-38.9%
-70.0%
7.5 carries/g (L8) · 23% carry share
SF · QB vs SEA
FanDuel +550
15.4%
+1.1%
+7.4%
4 carries/g (L8) · 14% carry share
Rome Odunze
CHI · WR vs GB
Fanatics +310
24.4%
-7.9%
3.5 targets/g (L8) · 13% target share
Kyle Monangai
Fanatics +180
35.7%
-20.3%
-56.8%
10 carries/g (L8) · 29% carry share
DK Metcalf
PIT · WR vs IND
-19.7%
-57.0%
9.5 targets/g (L8) · 26% target share
Tony Pollard
TEN · RB vs HOU
DraftKings +190
-57.1%
10.5 carries/g (L8) · 49% carry share
Quinshon Judkins
CLE · RB vs NYJ
BetOnline.ag +110
-68.9%
12 carries/g (L8) · 53% carry share
Jaylen Waddle
DEN · WR vs LAC
-18.6%
-55.7%
6.5 targets/g (L8) · 23% target share
Carnell Tate
TEN · WR vs HOU
Fanatics +265
27.4%
-47.5%
5.5 targets/g (L8) · 24% target share
Malik Willis
MIA · QB vs CIN
-48.1%
4 carries/g (L8) · 17% carry share
Davante Adams
FanDuel -105
-37.1%
-72.5%
6 targets/g (L8) · 22% target share
HOU · WR vs TEN
Fanatics +750
11.8%
+2.3%
+19.7%
4 targets/g (L8) · 9% target share
Blake Corum
FanDuel +250
-14.8%
-51.8%
10 carries/g (L8) · 34% carry share
Cade Otton
TB · TE vs DAL
-1.9%
-12.3%
Tucker Kraft
GB · TE vs CHI
-13.9%
-50.8%
4.5 targets/g (L8) · 13% target share
J.K. Dobbins
DEN · RB vs LAC
Fanatics +145
40.8%
-27.8%
-68.0%
9 carries/g (L8) · 42% carry share
Malik Washington
MIA · WR vs CIN
-20.6%
-61.7%
6.5 targets/g (L8) · 26% target share
Denzel Boston
CLE · WR vs NYJ
-10.2%
-45.0%
5.5 targets/g (L8) · 21% target share
Keaton Mitchell
Fanatics +240
29.4%
-17.2%
-58.5%
4.5 carries/g (L8) · 17% carry share
Samaje Perine
-52.4%
Team implied total 24.75 → ~3.35 off TDs (approx)
Hunter Henry
NE · TE vs LV
Fanatics +140
41.7%
-71.2%
4 targets/g (L8) · 15% target share
Gunnar Helm
TEN · TE vs HOU
Fanatics +475
17.4%
-5.8%
-33.4%
3.5 targets/g (L8) · 16% target share
Harold Fannin Jr.
CLE · TE vs NYJ
-17.0%
-59.4%
Mike Washington Jr.
-11.2%
-49.3%
5 carries/g (L8) · 15% carry share
Kenny Gainwell
FanDuel +450
18.2%
-6.7%
-36.6%
Opp allowing 100% rush TD rate to position
Kaelon Black
FanDuel +650
13.3%
-1.8%
-13.5%
10.5 carries/g (L8) · 37% carry share
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
FanDuel +290
-14.1%
-55.0%
6 carries/g (L8) · 22% carry share
Rachaad White
-9.9%
-46.4%
7 carries/g (L8) · 22% carry share
Khalil Shakir
BUF · WR vs LAR
-17.3%
-60.6%
6 targets/g (L8) · 21% target share
Malachi Fields
-3.6%
-24.0%
4 targets/g (L8) · 14% target share
Chris Godwin Jr.
FanDuel +500
16.7%
3.5 targets/g (L8) · 12% target share
Quentin Johnston
-16.2%
Jalen Nailor
-24.4%
Jameson Williams
-29.7%
-72.9%
6.5 targets/g (L8) · 17% target share
Luther Burden III
-17.5%
-61.3%
Makai Lemon
PHI · WR vs JAX
FanDuel +380
20.8%
-10.1%
-48.7%
Team implied total 18.25 → ~2.39 off TDs (approx)
Dalton Schultz
HOU · TE vs TEN
-15.1%
-58.8%
11 targets/g (L8) · 25% target share
Dontayvion Wicks
BetOnline.ag +270
27%
-16.7%
-61.6%
5 targets/g (L8) · 18% target share
Tyler Allgeier
DraftKings +165
-27.4%
-72.6%
11 carries/g (L8) · 43% carry share
Rhamondre Stevenson
Fanatics +125
44.4%
-34.2%
-76.9%
12 carries/g (L8) · 41% carry share
Woody Marks
Fanatics +175
36.4%
-26.2%
-72.0%
8.5 carries/g (L8) · 34% carry share
Romeo Doubs
NE · WR vs LV
BetOnline.ag +260
27.8%
-17.8%
-64.1%
Tyjae Spears
-7.5%
5 carries/g (L8) · 23% carry share
Courtland Sutton
-20.9%
4.5 targets/g (L8) · 16% target share
KC Concepcion
-19.0%
-66.4%
Wan'Dale Robinson
-16.0%
-62.5%
Josh Downs
IND · WR vs PIT
Fanatics +150
40%
-30.4%
-76.1%
6.5 targets/g (L8) · 22% target share
Fanatics +1100
8.3%
+1.2%
+14.0%
Rashid Shaheed
-11.8%
-55.5%
4.5 targets/g (L8) · 18% target share
Kayshon Boutte
Fanatics +600
14.3%
-4.9%
-34.3%
3.5 targets/g (L8) · 8% target share
Chris Brooks
-18.3%
-66.6%
5.5 carries/g (L8) · 28% carry share
Erick All
Fanatics +500
-45.3%
George Pickens
Fanatics +135
-78.6%
7 targets/g (L8) · 23% target share
John Bates
WAS · TE vs NYG
-2.8%
-23.5%
Adam Trautman
Fanatics +800
11.1%
-2.1%
-19.2%
Michael Wilson
ARI · WR vs DET
-20.5%
-69.8%
7 targets/g (L8) · 22% target share
Tee Higgins
Fanatics -135
57.5%
-48.6%
-84.6%
8 targets/g (L8) · 25% target share
Antonio Williams
-18.9%
-69.0%
3.5 targets/g (L8) · 11% target share
Michael Mayer
LV · TE vs NE
Fanatics +410
19.6%
-11.7%
Darius Cooper
FanDuel +420
19.2%
3 targets/g (L8) · 9% target share
Justin Herbert
LAC · QB vs DEN
-58.1%
4 carries/g (L8) · 15% carry share
Caleb Douglas
Fanatics +350
-67.3%
5 targets/g (L8) · 20% target share
Keon Coleman
FanDuel +240
-22.3%
-75.9%
Germie Bernard
-4.7%
-39.9%
8 targets/g (L8) · 22% target share
Ollie Gordon II
-30.7%
-81.3%
Team implied total 17.75 → ~2.32 off TDs (approx)
+20.1%
Matthew Golden
-22.4%
-76.0%
9 targets/g (L8) · 26% target share
Tre Harris
Fanatics +325
23.5%
-16.5%
Isaac TeSlaa
Fanatics +430
18.9%
-11.9%
-63.0%
3 targets/g (L8) · 8% target share
Dak Prescott
DAL · QB vs TB
DraftKings +500
-10.0%
-59.9%
Team implied total 28 → ~3.82 off TDs (approx)
Kaleb Johnson
-85.4%
8 carries/g (L8) · 44% carry share
Jacoby Brissett
ARI · QB vs DET
-8.3%
-56.1%
Team implied total 25 → ~3.38 off TDs (approx)
Joe Burrow
CIN · QB vs MIA
-7.8%
-54.5%
Emanuel Wilson
SEA · RB vs SF
-50.0%
-88.5%
11.5 carries/g (L8) · 37% carry share
Drake Maye
NE · QB vs LV
-70.9%
5.5 carries/g (L8) · 19% carry share
Bo Nix
DEN · QB vs LAC
-10.3%
DeMario Douglas
-27.1%
-81.2%
Jalen Hurts
PHI · QB vs JAX
BetOnline.ag +180
-29.5%
-82.6%
6 carries/g (L8) · 21% carry share
Deshaun Watson
CLE · QB vs NYJ
Fanatics +300
25%
-18.8%
-75.1%
6.5 carries/g (L8) · 29% carry share
Will Shipley
PHI · RB vs JAX
Caesars +170
-30.8%
-83.2%
4.5 carries/g (L8) · 16% carry share
Raheim Sanders
Fanatics +525
16%
-61.2%
Team implied total 18.75 → ~2.46 off TDs (approx)
Keenan Allen
-73.0%
Elic Ayomanor
-11.5%
-65.9%
Jaylin Noel
-8.9%
-60.3%
Ryan Flournoy
DraftKings +340
-74.9%
5 targets/g (L8) · 16% target share
Drew Sample
-4.8%
-45.7%
Sam Roush
CHI · TE vs GB
Fanatics +1200
7.7%
-2.0%
-26.3%
Kendrick Bourne
-11.1%
5.5 targets/g (L8) · 17% target share
Charlie Kolar
LAC · TE vs DEN
3 targets/g (L8) · 12% target share
Brenen Thompson
-3.3%
-39.0%
Kirk Cousins
LV · QB vs NE
-2.9%
-37.7%
4.5 carries/g (L8) · 14% carry share
Tyler Badie
-6.5%
-58.6%
Ameer Abdullah
FanDuel +1200
-40.2%
Kaytron Allen
-80.7%
Ted Hurst III
-12.2%
-73.2%
5 targets/g (L8) · 17% target share
Tez Johnson
DraftKings +750
-62.1%
Kalif Raymond
Fanatics +275
-83.5%
George Holani
FanDuel +270
-22.9%
-84.8%
6 carries/g (L8) · 19% carry share
Corey Kiner
Fanatics +1800
5.3%
-1.2%
Jonnu Smith
Fanatics +650
-9.3%
-69.6%
Mack Hollins
-85.6%
Roman Wilson
Fanatics +390
20.4%
6 targets/g (L8) · 16% target share
Pat Bryant
-82.4%
Johnny Mundt
PHI · TE vs JAX
FanDuel +900
10%
-6.1%
-61.4%
Xavier Hutchinson
Fanatics +450
-14.5%
-79.5%
7.5 targets/g (L8) · 17% target share
Dyami Brown
-80.1%
4 targets/g (L8) · 13% target share
MIA vs CIN
NYG vs WAS
TEN vs HOU
HOU vs TEN
GB vs CHI
DEN vs LAC
SF vs SEA
TB vs DAL
DETTotal: 1.43 proj TDs 5Top: Amon-Ra St. Brown