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Anytime TD โ€” Model Evaluation

Frozen eligible pregame snapshots ยท rate-based Poisson baseline ยท prospective collection

โ† Back to Projections

Insufficient sample (0 eligible predictions; minimum 20 for calibration). Do not interpret calibration or accuracy from this few picks โ€” prospective collection is in progress.

Predictions

0

Distinct Games

0

Model Version

labwork-nfl-anytime-td-v1

Date Range

โ€”

As-Of Cutoff

none

Chronological as-of cutoff (optional):

Model Evaluation

Avg Predicted Prob

โ€”

Actual Scoring Rate

โ€”

Brier Score

โ€”

Log Loss

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ฮต=0.0001

vs. Simple Historical Baseline

Static position league-prior anytime-TD rate (pre-specified, no training, no lookahead).

Baseline Brier

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Baseline Log Loss

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Model Brier ฮ”

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negative = model better

Priors: RB 34%, WR 27%, TE 22%, QB 12%

Calibration โ€” Predicted vs Observed Scoring Rate

Green = observed scoring rate, steel = model's avg predicted probability. Well-calibrated bins have the two bars near equal. Sample size per bin shown below.

0-10%10-20%20-30%30-40%40-50%50-60%60-70%70-85%0%25%50%75%100%
0-10%: n=010-20%: n=020-30%: n=030-40%: n=040-50%: n=050-60%: n=060-70%: n=070-85%: n=0

By Position

PosNWinsAvg PredActual RateBrier
No data

By Probability Range

RangeNAvg PredActual Rate
0-10%0โ€”โ€”
10-20%0โ€”โ€”
20-30%0โ€”โ€”
30-40%0โ€”โ€”
40-50%0โ€”โ€”
50-60%0โ€”โ€”
60-70%0โ€”โ€”
70-85%0โ€”โ€”

Betting Performance (separate from model evaluation)

Every frozen eligible pregame snapshot with a recorded pregame YES price; flat 1-unit stake on YES.

Bets

0

Units Net

0.00

ROI

โ€”

Avg Odds

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1 unit per bet, YES side only, recorded pregame price.

Excluded / Missing Records (never treated as losses)

Void

0

Needs Review

0

Pending (no stats yet)

90

Frozen, ungraded

0

Methodology & Honest Limits
  • โ€ขEvaluation uses frozen eligible pregame snapshots only; every refresh is not a separate prediction.
  • โ€ขPassing TDs excluded; rushing + receiving TDs only (matches projection scope).
  • โ€ขVOID/NEEDS_REVIEW/PENDING excluded from calibration and counted separately โ€” never treated as losses.
  • โ€ขReturn/defensive TDs are not in nflverse weekly stats; other_qualifying_tds is unverifiable and left 0.
  • โ€ขSample below 20: do not interpret calibration or accuracy from this few picks.