LabWork Methodology

LabWork compares model-generated probability estimates against current market pricing and other supported signals to surface spots where our estimate and the market's price disagree. That gap is what we call "edge."

LabWork is an analytics and research tool. It does not guarantee profits or guaranteed winning outcomes — sports and market outcomes are inherently uncertain, and past results never assure future performance.

Model probability is LabWork's own estimate of how likely an outcome is to occur. Different sports may use different inputs and generation methods depending on the data available for that sport.

Model probability is an estimate, not a guarantee — it can be wrong, and it will be wrong some of the time by design.

We convert American odds into an implied probability using standard odds math. This raw, "implied" probability includes the sportsbook's built-in margin (vig), so on its own it slightly overstates how likely the market really thinks an outcome is.

When enough mutually exclusive market outcomes are available (e.g. both sides of a moneyline or spread), LabWork normalizes the implied probabilities to remove the bookmaker's margin — this is the "no-vig" probability.

When a no-vig calculation isn't possible (incomplete market data), LabWork falls back to the raw implied probability instead, and always labels which method was used — the two are never mixed silently.

Preferred: Model probability minus no-vig market probability.

Fallback: Model probability minus raw implied market probability, used only when no-vig data isn't available.

Every edge value is tagged with the method that produced it, so a no-vig edge is never displayed or averaged together with a raw-implied edge.

Lab Grade is a simple, normalized label (e.g. A+, B, C) meant to give users a quick, at-a-glance read on a pick, in addition to the underlying probability and edge numbers shown alongside it.

We only describe signals here that are actually used in the current calculation, and we won't claim Lab Grade reflects line movement, sharp money, historical performance, or matchup data unless that signal is genuinely part of the live calculation.

A live model output is not automatically an official recommendation. Official Picks are recorded through a dedicated publication process, which snapshots the selection, odds, and probabilities at the moment of publication.

Those publication-time values are preserved permanently as a historical record and are never edited after the fact.

Our public Verified Results are calculated only from Official Pick records generated through the formal publication process described above — the "verified era."

We may also display historical model analytics from before this process existed. That data is shown separately and clearly disclosed — it is never merged into the verified performance totals.

Future Official Picks are associated with whichever model version was active at the moment of publication. When a model is updated, historical results already on the books are not retroactively reassigned to the newer version.

Odds and market data can change quickly. Where relevant, displayed values include timestamps or freshness indicators so you can see how current the underlying data is.

Always verify current market availability and pricing directly with your sportsbook before acting on anything shown here.

LabWork provides analytics and informational tools only. No model guarantees outcomes, and every user should make their own independent decisions using their own judgment and risk tolerance.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.