MLB Model Performance
Projected edge vs actual results for the MLB model — surfaces win rate by edge bucket, market, and recent pick outcomes to diagnose where the model is leaking value.
Win Rate
56.1%
110W / 86L / 0P decided
ROI (units)
8.3%
196 unit-bets decided
Avg Projected Edge
4.7%
across all settled
Edge: Wins vs Losses
4.8 / 4.7
avg edge on W vs L
Settled Picks
196
of 200 total
Pending
4
awaiting game result
Win Rate by Projected Edge
Edge 2.5–4%0 settled · —
Edge 4–6%104W-82L · 55.9% · avg 4.7%
Edge 6%+6W-4L · 60.0% · avg 6.4%
Performance by Market
| Market | Picks | W-L-P | Win % | Avg Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 104 | 56-48-0 | 53.8% | 4.6% |
| Over/Under | 48 | 29-19-0 | 60.4% | 4.8% |
| Run Line | 41 | 23-18-0 | 56.1% | 5.0% |
| Under | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 6.0% |
| Under/Over | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 4.8% |
Recent MLB Picks
| Date | Matchup | Pick | Market | Edge | Conf | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | Moneyline | 6.0% | 75 | Pending |
| 2026-10-07 | Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees | New York Yankees -1.5 | Run Line | 5.2% | 72 | Pending |
| 2026-10-07 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | Moneyline | 4.1% | 65 | Pending |
| 2026-10-07 | Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | Moneyline | 4.5% | 68 | Pending |
| 2026-10-06 | Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers | Moneyline | 4.5% | 72 | Win |
| 2026-10-06 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | Moneyline | 4.5% | 68 | Win |
| 2026-10-06 | Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves | Under 6 | Over/Under | 4.8% | 78 | Win |
| 2026-10-05 | Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | Moneyline | 4.8% | 78 | Loss |
| 2026-10-05 | Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Under 6.5 | Over/Under | 4.5% | 70 | Win |
| 2026-10-05 | New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | Moneyline | 4.5% | 75 | Win |
| 2026-10-04 | Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Over 7.5 | Over/Under | 5.5% | 78 | Win |
| 2026-10-04 | Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | Run Line | 4.8% | 72 | Win |
| 2026-10-04 | San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | Run Line | 4.8% | 70 | Loss |
| 2026-10-04 | San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | Moneyline | 4.5% | 70 | Win |
| 2026-10-04 | Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | Moneyline | 5.5% | 78 | Win |
| 2026-10-03 | New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | Under 6.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% | 70 | Win |
| 2026-10-03 | Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | Moneyline | 4.5% | 72 | Loss |
| 2026-10-03 | Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians -1.5 | Run Line | 4.5% | 70 | Loss |
| 2026-10-03 | Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | Run Line | 6.0% | 80 | Win |
| 2026-10-01 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | Moneyline | 4.8% | 65 | Win |
| 2026-09-30 | Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees | Under 6.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% | 78 | Loss |
| 2026-09-30 | Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres | Chicago Cubs | Moneyline | 4.4% | 74 | Loss |
| 2026-09-30 | Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Chicago White Sox | Moneyline | 4.2% | 68 | Win |
| 2026-09-30 | Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | Moneyline | 4.5% | 75 | Win |
| 2026-09-29 | Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros | Over 8 | Over/Under | 4.1% | 73 | Win |
Settled MLB picks are retained for 30 days for performance analysis. Model metrics are diagnostic only.